Nice or bust. The Polish position after the Brussels Summit.
18th December 2003


Poland appears determined to maintain its tough stance following the failure of the Brussels summit to reach agreement on the draft constitution. Both the government and opposition are declaring that no compromise is possible other than waiting till say 2009 before deciding whether to change the Nice voting system for the double majority proposed by Giscard d’Estaing and the Convention.

‘Brussels was a success’ Jan Truszczyński, the deputy foreign minister and an EU affairs veteran said soon after returning from the summit. ‘Our position on the constitution is now better known and understood’ he explained. The Poles are also relieved that Spain stood by its position on Nice and say they are confident that support among other EU states will grow in coming months.

This line is echoed by Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Poland’s former EU affairs minister who has emerged as a key voice in the debate on Poland’s Europe policy. The initiative has moved to either eurosceptic parties such as the Liga Polskich Rodzin (LPR, League of Polish Families) or to movements such as Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS, Law and Justice) which has never hidden its misgivings about Polish membership of the EU. Indeed the four PiS observers at the European Parliament, quietly left the EPP caucus this week and moved to the Europe for a Union of Nations group. PiS rhetoric aimed at blocking any compromise on Nice is matched by the main stream, pro business Platforma Obywatelska (PO, Civic Platform). This party is a front runner for winning the 2005 parliamentary elections and it is being advised on EU issues by Jacek Saryusz-Wolski. The present government led by prime minister Leszek Miller and Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, the foreign minister, have also nailed their colours to the voting system agreed at Nice and public opinion appears to be solidly behind them.

Why so much determination ?

Fears still linger at Poland’s Foreign Ministry of a dominant Germany in Europe. These have been fuelled in recent months by the controversy over the location of a museum dedicated to the fate of the war time expellees from what was then eastern Germany. More pertinently though officials are losing sleep over the political effects of claims German citizens may make on Poland for property lost since 1939 once the country joins the EU. At the same time the Poland’s self confidence is being boosted by the blandishments coming from a Bush White House, grateful for Polish support over Iraq.

Also the arguments in defence of the Nice voting system are credible. These are that not only was it agreed at the summit in 2000 and later ratified by 15 member states but that it was also a central plank in the pro Europe campaign in Poland’s accession referendum. Now the Poles are asking why the triple majority system should not be tested before it is ditched.

But in fact Poland appears to be fighting to retain the ability to block EU decisions (which the Nice formula enables) in order to be able to reverse the stringent financial terms it was handed at the Copenhagen summit. Thus Jacek Saryusz-Wolski is happy to explain that the EU’s traditional regional policy is under threat and that Poland should have the opportunity to organise a blocking minority to stop the policy from being dismantled. He has also said that Poland should be prepared to block the 2007 – 2013 budget should it not be acceptable. Jacek Saryusz-Wolski adds that what was really at issue in Brussels is whether the EU of 25 is to be run by four big states – France, Germany, the UK and Italy or by six – including Spain and Poland. The former EU affairs minister dismisses the threat that Poland’s unremitting stance could affect its chances if getting a good financial deal in 2007- 2013 (EU law does not permit discrimination, he says) or the emergence of a ‘hard core’ without Poland (should enhanced cooperation policies emerge we must insist that we are members of the groups concerned, he explains).

This combination of a united political class backed by a population and opinion formers who are arguing that what is at stake is whether Poland will find itself in an EU dominated by Germany and France makes it difficult to see what kind of compromise on the constitution can be worked out in the coming months.

Indeed it appears that Poland is manoeuvering itself into a British position in terms of public opinion. The opinion polls show that Polish support for pro European policies is falling. Last July, 57 per cent of Poles thought that EU membership was a good thing but that figure had slipped to 40 per cent in November. Long terms expectations remain relatively high though. In November 63 per cent thought that EU membership would prove beneficial in ten years time. How long will that conviction survive if the present confrontation lasts?

Krzysztof Bobiński